The Year of Superposition: How Trump, Technology, and Uncertainty Will Shape 2025
Welcome back! 2025 has now revealed its identity: it is the year of radical uncertainty and “superposition,” where geopolitical forces collide with the lightning speed of technological change. Donald Trump’s electoral victory resolved the “quantum” uncertainty, defining a future full of ruptures. The world is in its most dangerous state since the Cold War era.
1. The Remaking of the Global Order by Trump
Donald Trump’s return to power signals the reappearance of the “America First” policy, which will force allies and adversaries alike to question the solidity of American alliances. The world is experiencing the most serious and challenging threats since 1945, including the potential for near-term major war.
Geopolitical Tests: Ukraine and the Middle East
The new administration will focus on ending the war in Ukraine. Further military aid from the US is unlikely to be forthcoming. Pressure for negotiations will increase in 2025, likely requiring Ukraine to accept the loss of some territory, including the 7% Russia seized in 2014 (Crimea and Eastern Donbas). If Trump pushes Ukraine into a one-sided peace deal that leaves it vulnerable, Russia will have won, undermining American credibility. European countries, in such a scenario, would be likely to fail the test of defending Ukraine.
In the Middle East, Trump may well succeed in getting Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, is unlikely to defy Trump, as he did Joe Biden. Netanyahu’s position means that Israel’s wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and against Iran are likely to continue well into the new year, as he seeks to delay a reckoning for his previous failed policy of containing Hamas.
Economy, Tariffs, and Immigration
Trump is expected to swiftly implement massive tariffs, having threatened 60% or more on imports from China and 10-20% on all other countries. This policy is considered a serious intention. If these tariffs are combined with mass deportations, the damage would be severe: the US economy could be 3% to 10% smaller than expected by 2028, and cumulative inflation could be 13-23% higher.
Trump’s central commitment is the mass deportation of illegal immigrants. His administration will aim to “shut down” the southern border and limit asylum through sweeping executive orders. Advisers suggest reviving emergency powers, potentially using the pretext of diseases carried by immigrants to end asylum. The most extreme versions of this plan will face practical, legal, and political constraints, especially since over 11 million American citizens live with a relative who may be subject to removal. Even poorly executed attempts at rounding up migrants could separate families and cause division.
2. The Dual Nature of the Technological Revolution
2025 will be a critical year for Artificial Intelligence (AI), as investor optimism clashes with real constraints in adoption and energy consumption.
AI: Energy Cost and Adoption
The AI mania has led to expectations of spending exceeding 1.4 trillion on data centers between 2024 and 2027. Total IT spending is forecast to rise to **3.6 trillion in 2025. Yet, broad AI adoption remains low: only 5-6% of American businesses report using AI to produce goods or services.
One of the largest constraints is energy consumption. Global power consumption from data centers could more than double from 2022 levels, reaching 1,000 TWh by 2026—equivalent to Japan’s entire electricity consumption. New, large data centers now require 300-500 MW of power, up from 100-200 MW previously.
Medical Breakthroughs and Legal Battles
2025 is expected to be a pivotal moment for cancer vaccines. Personalized mRNA vaccines use AI to identify mutations and train the immune system to recognize and attack cancer cells within six weeks. About 65 AI-inspired molecules are currently in human trials. It seems likely that four or five AI-developed treatments, if not more, could proceed to phase-three trials in 2025.
Meanwhile, generative AI faces mounting legal challenges. Representatives of nearly every creative industry have filed copyright infringement complaints against generative-AI companies for using copyrighted material without payment to train their models. While tech firms often rely on the “fair use” defense in the US, legal precedents set in 2025 could reshape the industry for years to come.
3. Climate, Energy, and Geoengineering
The global effort to limit warming requires greenhouse gas emissions to peak by 2025. China’s emissions (which account for 30% of the global total) may have already peaked in 2023.
Grid Storage and Chinese Green Dominance
Grid-scale energy storage is the fastest-growing energy technology globally. Approximately 80 GW of new capacity is expected to be added in 2025. This surge is driven by the deployment of solar and wind power and the sharp decline in lithium-ion battery prices due to Chinese overcapacity. China aims to lead the next phase of green innovation, focusing on hard-to-abate sectors and advancing in areas like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and green hydrogen. China already produces about 40% of the world’s electrolyzers, and regions like Inner Mongolia plan to produce 480,000 tonnes of green hydrogen in 2025.
Fusion and Geoengineering
The quest for clean energy from nuclear fusion is shifting decisively from the public to the private sector. Commonwealth Fusion, a private firm, is scheduled to open its SPARC reactor towards the end of 2025, designed to operate at a near-commercial scale of about 140 MW. Conversely, the flagship intergovernmental project, ITER, has been postponed and is not scheduled to be switched on until 2034.
As temperatures continue to rise (2025 is likely to be one of the coolest years for decades to come), solar geoengineering is gaining attention. This method, which involves injecting shiny particles into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight, carries enormous physical, chemical, and political risks. The UN treaty ENMOD (Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques), established in 1977, might serve as a useful forum for discussing the governance of geoengineering.
4. Global Economic and Development Dynamics
India is poised to surpass Japan in 2025 to become the fourth largest economy in the world. India hopes to benefit from geopolitical tensions, with companies like Apple planning to produce over a fifth of its iPhones there by the end of 2025.
In Africa, nine of the 20 fastest-growing economies globally in 2025 will be on the continent. Countries less dependent on commodities, such as Rwanda, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania, are projected to grow by at least 6%. Meanwhile, large resource-intensive economies like Nigeria and South Africa have lower GDP per person today than they did a decade ago.
In China, the population is shrinking and aging. The government is promoting the “silver economy” to improve the well-being of the elderly. The value of this economy is estimated to reach 30 trillion yuan (about one-tenth of GDP) by 2035. This is spurred by the upcoming generation of retirees (aged 50-60) who are the wealthiest sector of society.
Despite bankers’ excitement, a flurry of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) is not expected in 2025. Geopolitics is the most important constraint. Wars in Europe and the Middle East, coupled with Donald Trump’s return (likely sending the US deficit even higher), create uncertainty, making private firm bosses reluctant to make long-term performance promises.
5. Social and Cultural Shifts
Migration and Security in Latin America
Pressure to migrate in Latin America is increasing due to factors like the political crisis in Venezuela and gang violence in Haiti and Ecuador. In response, the backlash against migration is intensifying. In 2025, presidential elections in Ecuador and Chile, both facing rising crime rates, will likely show growing support for tougher security policies. This suggests a move towards the “iron fist” model popularized by El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele.
Culture, DEI, and Restitution
2025 marks the 250th anniversary of the birth of Jane Austen (December 16th, 1775), who remains the greatest romance novelist of all time. This cultural legacy is astonishing, with commemorative events globally, and her influence evident in hit shows like “Bridgerton” and the upcoming fourth Bridget Jones film.
Meanwhile, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) schemes will be slimmed down. The anti-woke backlash will continue and spread. Companies will tone down their rhetoric, phasing out schemes that tie executive bonuses to diversity targets. The re-election of Donald Trump will provide companies with conservative customers the motivation and political cover to step back from certain DEI initiatives.
In cultural heritage, the restitution of objects will accelerate. Negotiations regarding the Parthenon Marbles at the British Museum may take a significant step forward. A long-term loan or swap with Greece is considered the most realistic outcome, potentially making the British Museum a “lending library” for the world.
Digital Entertainment
China’s ultra-short micro-dramas—mini soap operas with one-minute episodes filmed in vertical format—will extend their reach outside of China in 2025. These bite-sized sagas are perfect for the smartphone generation.
Furthermore, video games are the next big thing in film and television. The film Minecraft will come to the big screen in 2025, following the success of HBO’s The Last of Us (season two expected in 2025) and the box office success of Super Mario Bros in 2023. The largest entertainment release in 2025 is predicted to be the video game Grand Theft Auto 6.
2025 is set to be a year defined by strong contrasts: geopolitical confrontation, immense technological potential, and deep uncertainty.